Sick of Bush

George W. Bush continues to pretend that economic growth and business as usual can be expected in the forseeable future, even as his own advisors tell him otherwise. Matthew Simmons, Texas investment banker and expert on the economics of the oil industry, is a long term Bush advisor and this is what he thinks about our immediate energy future:

Matthew Simmons, Simmons International
Slides from a presentation to World Affairs Council, Houston, Tx.
...
I Believe We Are Now In A Deep Hole
* Spare capacity is over.
* System was too tight in 2004 and only got tighter.
* Adding significant capacity in key bottlenecks takes 5 – 15 years to effect.
* Too much oil and gas production is now in irreversible decline.
* Demand has a resilience not easily hampered by price.
* Stocks got to “just-in-time supply.”

Katrina Was An Energy Tipping Point
* Risk of experiencing finished product shortages over next 6 months is high.
* Risk of forced natural curtailment is high.
* Rig shortage was already real and got far worse by systemic mooring system failures.
* It might be impossible to recreate energy cushion without permanent demand destruction.
* The pain is currently U.S. based: The tightness soon becomes global.
...
Post-Peak Oil Is A Big Deal
* Oil demand growth is insatiable.
* Oil use can never exceed useable supply.
* Working out a peaceful resolution to this pending clash can be done, but will not be easy.
* If issue is ignored and it happens, it becomes a social tipping point.
* It is past time for data reform.
* It is time for a Global Energy Summit.
(13 September 2005)

In other words, the world as we know it is over. What plans are being made to deal with this - other than trying (unsuccessfully) to control other countries that have a lot of oil? Have you heard any of your elected representatives deal with this issue in any way? This is the most important issue of our age and it is virtually invisible except on select web sites and in a couple of honest books that are mostly being ignored. In many ways it is understandable why people want to avoid this issue - there is nothing we can do about it. Still, there is much we could do to ameliorate the consequences of peak oil - but if we don't recognize the problem and actually discuss it, there isn't much chance that we can soften the blow.

At least one community college is actually offering a course in how to respond to the coming petroleum decline:

Course Description

Cheap oil is coming to an end. Within the next decade or two world oil production is likely to reach a peak and then begin an irreversible decline. The end of cheap oil threatens to stall and even reverse economic growth worldwide. It could lead to profound disruptions in our way of life, especially in the areas of transportation and food production.

This course examines the inevitable collision between our growing thirst for oil and the certain decline in its availability in the years to come. What might the consequences for the world economy be? Can we find alternatives to oil before its production begins to decline? What can an individual do to help us make a successful transition to a post-oil economy? Alternative energy, lifestyle changes, conservation and efficiency measures will be discussed.

A much bleaker view can be found at James Howard Kuntlser's website:

Take a good look at America around you now, because when we emerge from the winter of 2005 - 6, we're going to be another country. The reality-oblivious nation of mall hounds, bargain shoppers, happy motorists, Nascar fans, Red State war hawks, and born-again Krispy Kremers is headed into a werewolf-like transformation that will reveal to all the tragic monster we have become.

What we will leave behind is the certainty that we have made the right choices. Was it a good thing to buy a 3,600 square foot house 32 miles outside Minneapolis with an interest-only adjustable rate mortgage -- with natural gas for home heating running at $12 a unit and gasoline over $3 a gallon? Was it the right choice to run three credit cards up to their $5000 limit? Was I chump to think my pension from Acme Airlines would really be there for me? Do I really owe the Middletown Hospital $17,678 for a gall bladder operation that took forty-five minutes? And why did they charge me $238 for a plastic catheter?

All kinds of assumptions about the okay-ness of our recent collective behavior are headed out the window. This naturally beats a straight path to politics, since that is the theater in which our collective choices are dramatized. It really won't take another jolting event like a major hurricane or a terror incident or an H4N5 flu outbreak to take things over the edge -- though it is very likely that something else will happen. George W. Bush, and the party he represents, are headed into full Hooverization mode. After Katrina, nobody will take claims of governmental competence seriously.

The new assumption will be that when shit happens you are on your own. In this remarkable three weeks since New Orleans was shredded, no Democrat has stepped into the vacuum of leadership, either, with a different vision of what we might do now, and who we might become. This is the kind of medium that political maniacs spawn in. Something is out there right now, feeding on the astonishment and grievance of a whipsawed middle class, and it will have a lot more nourishment in the months ahead.

There are two things that the newspapers and TV Cable News outfits are not covering very well. One is that the Port of New Orleans is not functioning, with poor prospects for a quick recovery, and with it will go much of the Midwestern grain harvest. Another thing that has fallen off the radar screen is the damage done to the oil and gas infrastructure around the Gulf Coast, especially the onshore facilities for storing and transporting stuff, and for marshaling the crews and equipment to fix stuff. The US is going to run short of its customary supplies for a long time. The idea that these things will not affect an economy of ceaseless mobility is not realistic.

These serious problems on-the-ground are going to affect the more ephemeral elements floating around in the financial ether: the value of the dollar, the hazard in hedge funds, the credibility of institutions. By October, the hurricane season will be ending and the stock market crash season will be underway. It is hard to imagine that companies like WalMart really believe they will keep their profits up when their customers are paying twice as much as they did a year ago to heat their houses and fill their gas tanks.

Meanwhile, does anybody remember a place called Iraq? A bomb that killed thirty people was reported on page 12 of the Sunday New York Times. That's how important Iraq has become. But, I guess, a nation can hardly pay attention to a bullet in the foot when it has a sucking chest wound.

So, even if it's only half that bad it will be pretty terrible, right? And what is anyone in "power" doing to position us for dealing with this situation - which is happening right now? Look around. We are living in a fantasy land. When the real suffering and dying starts at home - rather than half way around the world - and we are actually living this reality rather than watching other hapless souls suffer in Iraq and Afghanistan while we adjust the Air Conditioning and order a pizza delivery - how are we going to react? What will the political realities be when Americans realize that their "special" place is a fantasy and that they are as vulnerable as anyone else - and even worse, since being deprived of our excess will seem even more painful than being deprived of the little that most people in the world have.

Welcome to the new century. We are not going to like it.